分子亚型对第二次原发性恶性瘤的发展起着重要的作用,基于324,661名乳腺癌幸存者的研究
Jin Shi1, Jian Liu2, Guo Tian3
1Cancer Institute, The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University, the Tumor Hospital of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China.
Scientific reports
|April 8, 2025
概括
乳腺癌亚型显示出发生率趋势的变化,特定的亚型影响了第二次原发性恶性瘤的风险. 一个新的风险模型有助于识别高风险患者,以便更密切地监测.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 乳腺癌分子亚型的发病率趋势尚不清楚.
- 关于第二原发性恶性瘤 (SPMs) 的亚型特定风险及其第一原发性乳腺癌 (FPBC) 幸存者的风险因素的数据有限.
研究的目的:
- 分析乳腺癌亚型的发病率趋势.
- 量化SPM的亚型特定风险.
- 确定SPM的风险因素,并开发一个预测模型.
主要方法:
- 利用SEER注册表数据进行FPBC识别,并创建培训/验证套件.
- 收集了河北乳腺癌幸存者的SPM数据进行比较.
- 进行单变量和多变量分析以确定风险因素.
- 开发了一个名图和风险分层模型.
主要成果:
- 观察到三阴性乳腺癌 (TNBC) 的下降趋势和光线A亚型的增加趋势.
- 确定诊断时的年龄,淋巴结状况,放射治疗和亚型作为SPM的独立风险因素.
- 建立了一个具有AUC值为0.682 (3年) 和0.679 (5年) 的预测名录.
- 开发了一个风险分层模型,将患者分为低风险,中等风险和高风险组.
结论:
- 乳腺癌亚型表现出明显的发病率趋势和SPM风险.
- 开发的风险模型有效地识别了需要更密切的临床随访的高风险个体.
- 第二种乳腺癌是最常见的SPM,其次是肺癌和妇科癌,观察到区域差异.
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