相关实验视频
Updated: May 15, 2025

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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估计当前和未来的洪水风险在相邻的美国
Oliver E J Wing1,2, Paul D Bates1,2, Andrew M Smith1,2
1School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, United Kingdom.
概括
新的高分辨率洪水模型显示,美国人面临严重洪水的数量是此前估计的2.6-3.1倍. 这种洪水风险是由人口增长和气候变化推动的,影响了生活在洪水平原中的数百万人.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 风险评估 风险评估
背景情况:
- 美国以前的雨水驱动的洪水风险评估受到了不完整的覆盖,粗略的分辨率和简化的洪水物理模型的影响.
- 现有的方法往往低估了洪水危险和人口暴露的真实程度.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个高分辨率的2D洪水模型,用于整个美国,以准确估计当前和未来的洪水风险.
- 与以前的估计相比,提供有关人口和经济受洪水影响的更精确数据.
主要方法:
- 采用了新的30米分辨率模型,将2D洪水物理纳入美国的边界.
- 经验证的模型准确性与本地,详细的洪水模型相比,达到90%的技能.
- 集成的高分辨率洪水深度数据与相应的暴露数据集,以计算洪水风险.
主要成果:
- 确定美国人口的2.6-3.1倍比以前估计的暴露在严重洪水中.
- 发现大约有4100万美国人居住在1%的年度超标概率洪平原内,远高于FEMA的1300万估计.
- 由于人口和国内生产总值的增长,预计未来的洪水暴露率将大幅增加,可能会被气候变化放大.
结论:
- 新的高分辨率建模方法提供了更准确的评估国家洪水危险和暴露.
- 目前的洪水风险被现有的方法大大低估了,这突显了更新风险管理策略的关键需求.
- 未来的洪水风险将因人口趋势和气候变化而加剧,需要采取积极的适应措施.
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