在考虑气候变化,火灾和白色变化之后,针对目标林业的气候减缓潜力
Shijing Liang1,2,3,4, Alan D Ziegler5, Peter B Reich2,6,7
1School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
Science advances
|April 9, 2025
概括
造林和再造林是缓解全球变暖的关键. 这项研究估计,到2100年,森林可以封存31.3至69.2 Pg Ceq,但区域差异和干扰是关键因素.
科学领域:
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 森林生态 森林生态
背景情况:
- 为了减轻人为变暖,促进了植树造林和再造林.
- 由于气候动态,反循环,干扰和白色变化,对碳捕获潜力的卫星评估是不确定的.
研究的目的:
- 通过结合地球系统模型估计全球森林的碳封存潜力.
- 分析区域差异和影响林业减缓能力的因素.
主要方法:
- 用一个合的地球系统模型进行模拟.
- 根据可持续的社会经济路径,从2021-2100年开始估计的碳减排潜力 (Pg Ceq).
- 分析了区域差异,考虑了气候动态,植被气候反,火灾干扰和表面白色效应.
主要成果:
- 据估计,在2021年至2100年期间,全球森林覆盖率将减少31.3至69.2Pg Ceq.
- 热带地区的碳减排潜力最高.
- 中高度地区表现出更大的异质性,需要特定区域的战略.
结论:
- 森林的碳减排潜力是显著的,但受到动态因素的影响,如干扰和白度变化.
- 对于有效的以自然为基础的气候减缓计划,区域特定的战略至关重要.
- 建议制定高分辨率地图,用于有针对性的林业,避免敏感的土地和冲突.
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