结核病传播动态的SEIRS模型包括环境和最佳控制
1Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, 00200, Kenya. francokech@gmail.com.
BMC infectious diseases
|April 9, 2025
概括
结核病的传播在全球范围内仍然存在,但肯尼亚的新数据驱动模型显示,将传播率降低10%可以降低发病率. 接种Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) 疫苗是控制结核病的最具成本效益的干预措施.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 结核病 (TB) 是全球主要的健康威胁,每年造成超过200万人的死亡.
- 现有的模型往往忽略了环境因素,再感染,复发和模型校准,限制了它们的现实应用.
- 本研究通过开发一种新的,基于数据的结核病传播动态模型来解决这些局限性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证数据驱动的数学模型,用于分析结核病传播动态.
- 估计关键的流行病学参数,并预测肯尼亚未来的结核病发病率.
- 确定在肯尼亚控制结核病的最有效的干预措施.
主要方法:
- 使用下一代矩阵方法计算基本复制数 (R0).
- 采用第四和第五阶朗格-库塔方法,用于模型方程的数值解.
- 将模型与肯尼亚的历史结核病发病率数据 (2000-2022) 校准,使用最小二次方程.
主要成果:
- 计算了1.737266的基本繁殖数 (R0),表明没有干预的结核病持续传播.
- 在模型校准过程中达到0.01%的平均绝对误差 (MAE),证明了高精度.
- 预计到2045年,结核病发病率将在持续的公共卫生努力下降到每10万人中有35例.
结论:
- 开发的模型准确地反映了肯尼亚的历史结核病发病率.
- 传染率减少10%可能导致结核病传染率减少10%.
- 鉴于Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) 疫苗接种被认为是肯尼亚结核病控制的最具成本效益的策略,建议政策优先考虑.
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