在不断变化的环境下,玉林市碳库存的空间和时间演变
Guikai Sun1,2,3, Yadong Li4,5,6,7, Rui Huang1,2,3
1Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education, Guangxi University, Nanning, 530004, China.
Scientific reports
|April 10, 2025
概括
玉林市的土地利用变化显示出重大转变,主要涉及森林,耕地和建筑用地. 虽然到2020年区域碳库存增加,但预计未来的增长将放缓,可能由于土地使用动态而逆转.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 土地使用变化对区域碳平衡和生态系统碳循环产生重大影响.
- 了解土地利用变化的驱动因素对于管理碳预算至关重要.
- 玉林市的土地使用演变需要调查,以告知可持续发展.
研究的目的:
- 从2000年到2020年,分析林市土地利用和碳库存的空间和时间动态.
- 根据2030年的不同情景,预测未来的土地使用和碳库存.
- 为玉林市未来的土地利用规划和碳管理战略提供科学基础.
主要方法:
- 使用InVEST模型计算历史碳库存 (2000-2020年).
- 采用PLUS模型来模拟未来的土地使用变化,并预测到2030年碳库存.
- 对比了各种碳库存估计方法,以选择最合适的模型模拟方法.
主要成果:
- 玉林市 (2000-2020年) 的土地使用转让主要是森林,耕地和建筑用地之间,耕地净损失.
- 碳库存的分布与海拔高度相关,山区的碳库存较高,水体的碳库存较低.
- 从2000年到2020年,区域生态系统的碳库存增加了2.16×106;未来预测显示,在不同的情景下,增长趋势总体下降,变化各不相同.
结论:
- 该研究强调了土地利用转型对林市碳库存的重大影响.
- 未来的碳储量趋势表明增长可能放缓,可能减少,需要积极管理.
- 研究结果为优化土地利用规划提供了关键的见解,以加强碳捕获并实现生态可持续性.
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