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机器学习方法用于实时邮政编码和县级估计全州传染病住院病例,使用当地卫生系统数据
Tanvir Ahammed1, Md Sakhawat Hossain1, Christopher McMahan2
1Department of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA; Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA.
Epidemics
|April 11, 2025
概括
实时卫生系统数据有效估计传染病负担,改善公共卫生响应. 机器学习模型在预测COVID-19住院治疗方面显示出高准确性,适应其他疾病.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 估计当地地区的实时传染病负担对于及时的公共卫生干预至关重要.
- 传统的数据源往往会有报告延迟,缺乏地理细节性,阻碍有效的响应.
- 当地卫生系统数据为克服这些局限性提供了一个有希望的替代方案.
研究的目的:
- 利用南卡罗来纳州当地卫生系统数据,评估机器学习和统计方法来估计当前和过去的COVID-19住院治疗情况.
- 评估这些模型在邮政编码和县级的准确性.
- 开发在卫生系统内对代表性不足的人群进行核算的方法.
主要方法:
- 利用当地卫生系统的数据来训练和评估机器学习模型,包括随机森林和通用线性混合模型.
- 采用随机森林模型来估计目前每周的COVID-19住院病例.
- 组合随机森林与分类和回归树 (CART) 用于数据归算以解决代表性不足的人口.
主要成果:
- 与通用线性混合模型相比,随机森林模型在当前每周住院治疗的准确性更高 (邮政编码为72.29%,县级为76.43%).
- 导入模型显示,邮政编码的平均中位数同意率为61.02%,县的72.64%.
- 模型在6个月的累计住院治疗中表现出强的表现 (80.98%在邮政编码,81.17%在县级).
结论:
- 实时的当地卫生系统数据对估计传染病负担,特别是COVID-19住院治疗有效.
- 机器学习方法,特别是随机森林,提供准确和细粒度的估计.
- 开发的方法可以适应估计其他疾病的住院治疗,提高公共卫生准备和应对能力.
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