用ARIMA预测对欧洲国家进行AWaRe分类分析,以评估处方模式和"一个健康"目标
Lilly Josephine Bindel1, Roland Seifert2
1Institute of Pharmacology Hannover Medical School, 30625, Hannover, Germany.
Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology
|April 12, 2025
概括
许多欧洲国家可能无法满足欧盟的要求.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 药理学 药理学是指药理学的学科.
背景情况:
- 抗微生物药物耐药性构成了严重的全球健康威胁,直接与抗菌剂的使用有关.
- 优化抗生素处方质量和减少整体消费是管理的关键目标.
- 欧盟的"一个健康"倡议的目标是到2030年,在AWaRe框架的"获取"类别中,至少65%的抗生素消费.
研究的目的:
- 将重点从量化抗生素消费转移到评估处方质量.
- 为了确定欧洲国家的谨慎和有问题的处方行为,无论是从历史上还是预测.
- 评估欧盟在人类抗生素使用方面实现"一个健康"目标的进展情况.
主要方法:
- 对30个欧洲国家的1997-2023年抗菌剂消费数据的分析.
- 预测到2030年使用ARIMA模型的AWaRe药物类别的未来比例.
- 通过AWaRe组分布分析评估处方行为,并将总消费量与"One Health"目标进行比较.
主要成果:
- 预测表明,几个欧洲国家可能会错过2030年"访问"目标,区域差异显著.
- 在一些北欧国家",访问"组预测超过65%,而南欧和东欧国家显示较低的坚持.
- 担忧包括意大利,塞浦路斯和马耳他的高消费和恶化趋势,以及德国过度使用"储备"组.
结论:
- 预计许多欧洲国家将无法实现2030年欧盟"一健康"的抗生素使用目标.
- 更高的"访问"使用和更低的整体消费与细菌耐药性降低相关,而高消费和糟糕的处方做法增加了耐药性.
- 处方中存在显著的区域差异,需要量身定制的干预措施,在一些国家中注意到AWaRe分类的潜在局限性.
关键词:
在AMC中,AMC是AMC.抗菌药物反症 (AMR) 是一种在阿里马,阿里马就是阿里马.现在还在等待抗菌药物是一种抗菌药物.抗生素 抗生素是一种抗生素.抗生素管理局 抗生素管理局抗生素的处方 抗生素的处方消费抗微生物药物消费.在 ECDC 工作中, ECDC 的工作内容是:欧盟 欧盟 欧盟 欧盟欧洲欧洲欧洲欧洲欧洲欧洲欧洲预测 预测 预测 预测不理性的处方行为.一个健康,一个健康.有理性的处方行为.监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督更多相关视频
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