35个欧洲国家人口暴露于复合极端风险温度和空气污染的趋势:一个建模研究
Zhao-Yue Chen1, Hicham Achebak2, Hervé Petetin3
1ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|April 12, 2025
概括
极端温度和空气污染对健康构成重大风险,脆弱性因地区而异. 这项研究强调了需要特定地点的战略,以应对由臭氧和PM2.5.5等空气污染物加剧的复合热和冷事件.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 空气污染和气候变化对公众健康构成复杂,多方面的挑战.
- 极端温度和空气污染事件的时空共发生是不充分研究的.
- 现有的研究经常使用统一的温度值,忽视了区域健康脆弱性.
研究的目的:
- 为了全面评估极端温度和空气污染.
- 为加强健康脆弱性评估,纳入特定地点的风险值.
- 分析极端风险温度 (ERT) 日的变化及其与欧洲空气污染的同时发生.
主要方法:
- 在欧洲 (2003-2020年) 的ERT天 (热和冷) 的时间序列建模.
- 用35个欧洲国家的区域死亡率数据分析时间变化的温度死亡率关系.
- 量子式机器学习对PM2.5,PM10,NO2和O3度的估计,以识别超过世卫组织指导方针的复合热和寒天.
主要成果:
- 与寒冷相关的死亡风险下降;热量适应不那么明显.
- 每年的冷ERT天数减少了20.7/十年;热ERT天数增加了2.8/十年.
- 东南欧洲的热ERT和冷ERT日的频率更高. 热-O3事件增加 (2.6天/十年),而冷-PM2.5仍然是一个主要的威胁,减少了15.2天/十年.
结论:
- 特定区域的风险值显示了ERT事件与空气污染相结合的空间差异.
- 这些发现对于制定有针对性的适应战略至关重要.
- 有效的公共卫生措施需要根据局部风险和污染水平量身定制的方法.
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