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评估格式气候数据集捕获温度和降水趋势和极端情况的能力
Erik Smith1, Nina Grant2,3, Xinyue Luo4,3
1Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, USA. esmith@epri.com.
Scientific reports
|April 12, 2025
概括
评估了四个格式气候数据集 (ERA5,ERA5-Land,MERRA-2,PRISM) 的准确性,以捕捉连续美国的极端天气事件和趋势. 结果显示性能各不相同,PRISM在极寒中表现出色,MERRA-2在暴雨中表现出色.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 格式气候数据集越来越多地用于政策和规划.
- 了解它们在捕捉极端事件和趋势方面的局限性至关重要.
- 之前的研究集中在全球/区域统计数据上,而不是在连续的美国捕捉特定事件/趋势.
研究的目的:
- 评估四个广泛使用的格式气候数据集 (ERA5,ERA5-Land,MERRA-2,PRISM) 捕获极端热量,极端寒冷和大量降水事件的能力.
- 评估它们在捕捉连续美国 (CONUS) 的年度最高/最低温度和总降水趋势方面的表现.
- 识别数据差异中的空间模式,并比较数据集的优势.
主要方法:
- 评估了四个网格化的气候数据集:ERA5,ERA5-Land,MERRA-2和PRISM. 这些数据集包括:
- 评估的重点是极端高温,极端寒冷和大量降水事件.
- 分析了CONUS地区每年最高/最低气温和总降水量的趋势.
主要成果:
- 观察到空间差异,特别是在美国西部的温度和墨西哥湾沿岸的降水.
- 网格数据集通常比极端寒冷或大量降水更好地捕获极端热量.
- 性能因事件类型而异:PRISM在极端寒冷中表现出色,偏差调整后的MERRA-2在暴雨中表现出色,所有数据集都相对地捕获了极端热量.
结论:
- 格式化的气候数据集显示了捕捉极端天气事件和趋势的不同能力.
- 数据集的性能因地理区域和事件类型而异.
- 了解这些局限性对于准确的气候数据在政策和规划中的应用至关重要.
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