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气候变化的空间变化和时间变化的经济后果
Francisco Estrada1,2,3, Richard S J Tol2,4,5,6,7,8,9, Wouter Botzen2,10
1Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, CDMX, Mexico.
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
|April 13, 2025
概括
在经济模型中忽视空间和时间气候变化,大大低估了气候变化损失和碳的社会成本 (SCC). 这导致了偏见的政策建议和更高的未来经济影响.
科学领域:
- 气候经济学是气候经济学.
- 综合评估建模 综合评估建模
- 环境经济学环境经济学
背景情况:
- 综合评估模型 (IAM) 中的损害函数对于估计碳的社会成本 (SCC) 至关重要.
- 当前的IAM通常通过忽视空间变化 (Svar) 和时间变化 (Tvar) 来简化气候变化,这可能导致经济影响评估和政策建议具有偏见.
- 虽然时间变化的效应得到了研究,但空间变化及其与时间变化的相互作用仍未得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 调查将空间和时间的变化,包括季节性,纳入IAMs中的气候损害函数的影响.
- 量化经济损失和SCC估计中的偏差,当忽略Svar和Tvar时.
- 提供更准确的气候变化经济成本评估,并为气候政策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 开发和利用了损害函数,这些函数明确解释了气候影响的Tvar,Svar和季节性.
- 从包含这些因素的模型与不包含这些因素的传统模型中比较经济损失和SCC估计.
- 在高排放场景下分析结果,以评估低估的规模.
主要成果:
- 忽视Svar和Tvar显著偏差损失和SCC估计,导致严重低估经济影响.
- 在高排放场景下,到2050年损失被低估了17-45%,到2100年损失被低估了17-35%.
- 本世纪损失的当前价值被低估了38-222万亿美元 (2020年全球GDP的27-18%).
- 碳的社会成本 (SCC) 增加了20美元/tCO2,达到106美元/tCO2.
- 损失和SCC存在显著的部门和区域异质性,印度,非洲和中国对全球SCC贡献了50%.
结论:
- 对气候变化 (空间,时间和季节) 的更全面的表示对于IAM中准确的经济影响评估至关重要.
- 目前的IAM可能低估了气候变化的真正经济成本,可能导致政策反应不足.
- 政策决策和SCC估计需要超过全球平均温度的气候描述,以充分捕捉气候变化成本.
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