评估希腊文化遗产遗址的多个基温使用加热和冷却度日的未来变化:塞萨洛尼基和德尔菲的案例研究
E Tringa1, K Tolika1, S Tsoka2
1Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Faculty of Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece.
The Science of the total environment
|April 13, 2025
概括
气候变化将减少供暖需求,并增加对希腊文化遗址的冷却需求. 这种转变会影响未来的能源消耗,以保护遗产和确保游客的舒适.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 建筑的能源性能 建筑的能源性能
- 保护文化遗产 保护文化遗产
背景情况:
- 准确的能源需求预测对于适应气候变化至关重要,特别是对于博物馆和历史建筑等文化遗产遗址.
- 保持稳定的室内温度对于保存收藏品和确保访客舒适至关重要.
- 加热度日 (HDD) 和冷却度日 (CDD) 是加热和冷却能源需求的关键指标.
研究的目的:
- 预测希腊两个地区 (塞萨洛尼基和德尔菲) 未来加热度日 (HDD) 和冷却度日 (CDD) 的变化.
- 评估这些变化对文化遗址未来能源消耗的影响.
- 为文化遗产部门的气候变化适应战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 计算了各种基本温度的HDD和CDD (15-18°C为HDD,23-26°C为CDD).
- 利用来自区域气候模型RegCM4 (10x10公里分辨率) 的每日模拟气候数据.
- 采用RCP4.5排放场景用于未来气候模拟,涵盖参考时期 (1989-2000) 和未来时期 (2039-2059,2079-2099).
主要成果:
- 未来的预测表明,HDD (加热需求) 显著下降,CDD (冷却需求) 显著增加.
- 季节性分析显示,冬季的供暖需求减少,夏季的冷却需求增加.
- 过渡期的月份表现出更长的温暖时期,进一步将能源需求从供暖转向冷却.
结论:
- 由于气候变化导致的温度升高预计将减少塞萨洛尼基和德尔菲的供暖能源需求.
- 相反,预计冷却能源需求将增加,需要对文化遗址的能源管理进行调整.
- 该研究强调了能源分配从供暖转向冷却的明显转变,这对于文化遗产的长期保护至关重要.
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