相关实验视频
Updated: May 13, 2025

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
7.9K
社会环境建模显示了类似物理学的信心,水模型在数值主张方面超越了它
Arnald Puy1, Ethan Bacon1, Alba Carmona2,3
1School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
iScience
|April 14, 2025
概括
模拟复杂系统的科学领域,如流行病和水循环,使用与物理学类似的断言性语言. 特别是水模型在没有足够的不确定性分析的情况下量化了索赔,质疑了其认识论上的理由.
科学领域:
- 专注于跨人文和物理科学的社会环境建模.
- 考察了包括流行病,综合评估和水模型在内的领域.
- 比较科学知识要求中的语言断言力.
背景情况:
- 现代科学越来越多地使用复杂的数学模型来解释社会环境现象.
- 这些建模领域的认识论承诺仍然不清楚.
- 学术写作平衡了怀疑和确定性的表达.
研究的目的:
- 评估计算密集型建模领域的认识承诺.
- 分析科学摘要中的语言自信和量化.
- 评估对社会环境建模有强烈信念的理由.
主要方法:
- 利用机器学习分析了大约755,000个科学摘要.
- 从14个不同的科学领域提取的知识权利要求.
- 量化语言的断言力和数字证明的权利要求.
主要成果:
- 流行病,综合评估和水模型表现出高度的语言自信,与物理学相比.
- 水的建模表明了广泛的量化,超过了物理.
- 很大一部分水建模要求缺乏不确定性和灵敏度分析.
结论:
- 模拟社会环境过程的领域,特别是水模型,表现出强烈的认识体系承诺.
- 在水模型中的广泛量化要求对认识论的合理性进行仔细审查.
- 这项研究促使人们思考关于复杂系统的科学主张的确定性和怀疑.
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