预测癌症发病率和患病率使用年龄周期队列和生存率模型:一个实用,灵活和可解释的框架
Ana F Best1, Adalberto M Filho2, Philip S Rosenberg3
1Division of Cancer Treatment and Diagnosis, Biometric Research Program, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, United States.
Frontiers in oncology
|April 14, 2025
概括
预测癌症患病率现在可以通过一种新的方法来实现,该方法结合了发病率和生存趋势. 这种方法有助于预测癌症幸存者的未来医疗保健需求.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 年龄周期队列 (APC) 模型被广泛用于癌症发病率预测.
- 现有的模型无法预测癌症患病率,癌症幸存者的数量.
- 改善癌症存活率需要更好地预测幸存者的医疗保健需求.
研究的目的:
- 正式化预测癌症发病率的方法.
- 引入新的,灵活的,可解释的方法来预测癌症患病率.
- 分析发病率和生存趋势对未来患病率的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用新APC模型 (年龄,周期,出生队列) 建模癌症发病率.
- 用灵活的回归线 (诊断时的年龄,诊断年龄) 建模所有原因死亡率.
- 通过发病率和死亡率的卷积估计癌症患病率,包括向后预测.
主要成果:
- 使用侵袭性女性乳腺癌数据 (SEER,1992-2019) 证明了应用.
- 期间与队列效应对发病率趋势的量化相对影响.
- 发病率和生存趋势对流行趋势的评估贡献.
结论:
- 开发并说明了用于预测癌症患病率的新方法.
- 该方法为推动未来癌症负担的因素提供了洞察力.
- 对于规划未来的癌症护理资源分配至关重要.
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