在不确定性下对基础设施规划的优化方法
Margarita E Efthymiadou1, Vassilis M Charitopoulos1, Lazaros G Papageorgiou1
1The Sargent Centre for Process Systems Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering, UCL (University College London), Torrington Place, London WC1E 7JE, U.K.
实现净零需要了解基础设施投资的权衡. 一个随机优化模型表明,将自热改造和生物质气化与碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 结合起来是最具成本效益的低碳气战略.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 环境工程 环境工程
- 化学工程是化学工程的重要组成部分.
背景情况:
- 过渡到低碳能源系统对于实现净零排放至关重要.
- 关于基础设施投资的战略决策涉及复杂的权衡.
- 需求,成本和资源可用性的不确定性使规划变得复杂.
研究的目的:
- 制定一个优化基础设施投资的框架.
- 在不确定性条件下分析不同生产途径的成本效益.
- 为英国低碳气系统的战略决策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 一个使用混合整数线性编程 (MILP) 的两阶段随机优化框架.
- 详细的时空建模,以满足的需求.
- 减少未来的场景,以管理计算复杂性.
主要成果:
- 最具成本效益的策略包括自热改造和生物质气化与碳捕获和储存 (CCS).
- 不确定性分析显示,风险避开的方法是强有力的决策所必需的.
- 水电解透率对最佳生产组合产生重大影响.
结论:
- 综合生产,储存和运输基础设施规划对于净零目标至关重要.
- 随机优化为管理能源系统转型中的不确定性提供了宝贵的见解.
- 建议采用多元化的方法,结合包括CCS在内的各种低碳生产方法.
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