一个灵活的贝叶斯式g公式,用于因果生存分析与时间依赖的混
Xinyuan Chen1, Liangyuan Hu2, Fan Li3
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS, USA. xchen@math.msstate.edu.
Lifetime data analysis
|April 14, 2025
概括
本研究引入了使用贝叶斯附加回归树的增强g公式,以改善纵向研究中的因果生存曲线估计. 该方法减少了对时间变化的治疗方法的模型错误规范的偏差.
科学领域:
- 因果推理的原因推理.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 观察性研究是指观察性研究.
背景情况:
- 在纵向研究中估计因果生存曲线与时间到事件结果对于理解治疗效应至关重要.
- 传统的参数g公式是一个常见的工具,但可能容易受到模型错误规范偏差的影响.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个增强的g-formula估计器,以减轻因模型错误规范而导致的偏差.
- 在因果生存分析中将贝叶斯增量回归树 (BART) 纳入时间演变组件的建模.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个使用BART用于时间演变的生成组件的替代g-formula估计器.
- 引入了一类一般的g公式,用于离散的生存数据与纵向平衡得分.
- 为静态和动态处理策略提供后置采样算法.
主要成果:
- 模拟表明了拟议的BART增强g-formula的经验性表现.
- 该方法在分析电子健康记录数据方面表现出实际实用性.
结论:
- 用BART增强的g公式提供了一种强大的方法,用于在纵向观测研究中估计因果生存曲线.
- 这种方法改进了传统的g公式,减少了模型错误规范的偏差,特别是对于时间变化的治疗.
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