了解登革热的局部决定因素:在印度尼西亚雅加达的一个地理加权面板回归方法
Marko Ferdian Salim1,2, Tri Baskoro Tunggul Satoto3, Danardono4
1Doctorate Program of Medical and Health Science, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, 55281, Indonesia. markoferdiansalim@ugm.ac.id.
Tropical medicine and health
|April 14, 2025
概括
由于局部环境和土地使用因素,在Yogyakarta分区的登革热风险各不相同. 针对空间的预防策略对于在热带地区有效控制登革热至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 登革热是热带地区的重要公共卫生问题,如印度尼西亚的约加加达.
- 了解登革热的时空模式和促成因素对于有效控制至关重要.
- 这项研究调查了在Yogyakarta的登革热发病率的局部决定因素.
研究的目的:
- 为了探索在Yogyakarta的登革热发病率的时空决定因素.
- 用地理加权面板回归 (GWPR) 模型评估登革热预测因子的空间变性.
- 确定高风险地区和关键影响因素,以针对性预防登革热.
主要方法:
- 一项生态,时空研究分析了2017-2022年78个分区的登革热发病率.
- 数据包括气象学,社会人口学和土地利用变量.
- 一个具有固定指数内核的GWPR模型评估了局部预测因素的影响.
主要成果:
- 该GWPR模型表现出强大的解释能力 (调整R2=0.516),预测因素影响的空间异质性显著.
- 高登革热负担的地区,如卡西汉和班贡塔潘,与关键预测因素的关联更强.
- 模型的性能在空间上有所不同,在一些子地区的预测能力较低,这表明需要额外的数据.
结论:
- 该GWPR模型有效地揭示了时间空间登革热的动态以及局部预测因子的重要性.
- 空间适应性预防策略对于横加的登革热控制至关重要.
- 这些发现适用于其他热带地区,这些地区面临着类似的公共卫生挑战.
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