[基于PLUS-INVEST模型的时空演变和预测长江三角洲城市聚集中的碳储存]
Wei-Wu Wang1, Tian-le Fu1, Huan Chen1
1College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|April 15, 2025
概括
在长江三角洲 (YRD) 的土地利用变化导致了从2000年到2020年的显著碳储存损失. 未来的情景预测碳排放持续下降,强调需要战略性土地管理来实现"双碳"目标.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 地理 地理 地理 地理.
背景情况:
- 土地利用变化对陆地生态系统的碳储存有重大影响.
- 优化土地利用对于区域碳平衡和储存至关重要,特别是在中国长江三角洲 (YRD) 面临"双碳"目标和高质量发展的地区.
- 了解土地使用动态和碳储存之间的关系对于可持续发展战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从2000年到2020年分析土地利用变化及其对YRD城市聚集区碳储存的影响.
- 模拟和预测未来的土地使用模式和碳储存在2030年不同的发展情景下.
- 探索碳储存的时空特征,并为区域土地利用规划提供数据驱动的建议.
主要方法:
- 使用PLUS (人口-土地使用变化模拟) 模型进行土地使用变化分析.
- 碳储存估计使用InVEST (生态系统服务和权衡的综合估值) 模型.
- 使用空间自相对应的碳储存模式的时空分析.
主要成果:
- 从2000年到2020年,YRD的碳储量减少了5108万,主要是由于农田减少和建筑用地扩张.
- 到2030年,所有模拟情景 (自然发展,农田保护,生态优先) 预计碳储量与2020年水平相比将进一步减少.
- 空间自相对应分析显示,在所有场景中,南方和西部的高碳储存和YRD东部和中心的低碳储存都存在一致的集群.
结论:
- 土地利用变化,特别是农田转化为建筑用地,正在推动YRD的碳损失显著.
- 未来的土地使用场景,即使有保护措施,也表明碳储量下降的趋势仍在持续,需要积极的干预.
- 这些发现为制定有针对性的土地利用政策提供了关键的见解,以加强碳储存并实现YRD地区的碳中和目标.
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