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通过遵守荷兰饮食指南来增加非传染性疾病负担:一项建模研究,以估计未来的减少
Ming-Jie Duan1, Maartje P Poelman2, Sander Biesbroek1
1Division of Human Nutrition and Health, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
EClinicalMedicine
|April 15, 2025
概括
坚持荷兰的饮食指南,特别是减少加工肉类和增加水果摄入量,可以在2050年前显著降低荷兰非传染性疾病 (NCD) 的负担. 这些饮食转变预计将减少疾病发病率并增加预期寿命.
科学领域:
- 营养科学 营养科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 非最佳的食物消费是非传染性疾病 (NCD) 的主要可修改的风险因素.
- 荷兰饮食指南为更健康的饮食模式提供了一个框架.
- 了解饮食变化对非传染性疾病负担的潜在影响对于公共卫生政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计到2050年减少非传染性疾病负担的潜力.
- 评估遵守荷兰饮食指南的11个组成部分的影响.
- 确定在荷兰预防NCD的关键饮食成分.
主要方法:
- 使用DYNAMO-HIA软件来建模反事实场景.
- 纳入国家代表性食品消费数据 (2012-2016).
- 包括食品消费对非传染性疾病的相对风险,荷兰的非传染性疾病流行病学和人口结构.
主要成果:
- 消除加工肉类消费可以显著减少冠心病,2型糖尿病和结肠直肠癌.
- 增加水果消费可能会降低中风和肺癌的发生率.
- 按照这些指导方针,预计将增加预期寿命和没有疾病的预期寿命.
结论:
- 遵守荷兰的饮食指南可以大大减少荷兰未来的非传染性疾病负担.
- 减少加工肉类摄入量和增加水果消费被确定为NCD预防的优先目标.
- 饮食干预是改善公共卫生结果和寿命的强大工具.
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