使用可解释的机器学习方法,揭示住院COVID-19患者中患者-医院风险因素的相关交叉波模式
Fernanda Cristina Barbosa Lana1, Carolina Coimbra Marinho2, Bruno Barbosa Miranda de Paiva3
1Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, Belo Horizonte, 6627, Brazil. fernandacblana@gmail.com.
BMC infectious diseases
|April 15, 2025
概括
时间数据转移影响了COVID-19结果预测. 周围动脉氧和与吸入氧比率 (SatO2 / FiO2) 的比例,以及淋巴细胞计数是整个大流行期间不良结果的关键预测指标.
科学领域:
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 之前关于COVID-19不良结果的研究缺乏对时间数据转移的分析.
- 这项研究探讨了不断演变的流行病浪潮对预测因素-结果关联的影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估患者和医院因素预测医院死亡率,侵入性机械通风 (IMV) 和重症监护室 (ICU) 转移.
- 分析这些预测如何在不同的流行浪潮中发生变化.
主要方法:
- 在16958名COVID-19患者的多中心回顾性队列研究中 (2020年3月 - 2022年8月).
- 流行病分为三个波进行分析.
- 光梯度增强机 (LightGBM) 使用沙普利增材解释 (SHAP) 值用于识别风险因素.
主要成果:
- 观察到时间漂移,降低了跨波的预测模型性能.
- 周围动脉氧和与吸入氧的比率 (SatO2 / FiO2) 的部分是所有结果的强有力的预测因素.
- 淋巴缺血的预测强度随着时间的推移而增加;在第二波中,血小板缺血是至关重要的.
结论:
- 数据漂移显著影响了预测模型的能力.
- 血小板和淋巴细胞计数SatO2 / FiO2是不利的COVID-19结果的关键预测指标.
- 将时间漂移知识集成到模型中对于保持预测准确性至关重要.
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