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一个社会空间模型的住院风险从脆弱性到高温
Juan Declet-Barreto1, Benjamin L Ruddell2, Jarrett J Barber2
1Climate & Energy Program, Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, DC, USA.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|April 16, 2025
概括
极端高温不成比例地影响到脆弱的城市人口. 这项研究揭示了亚利桑那州马里科帕县低收入和少数群体中与热量相关的住院住院风险明显更高.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 城市热岛和气候变化加剧了全球范围内的极端高温事件.
- 亚利桑那州的马里科帕县经历了美国一些最高的温度.
- 以前的研究表明,脆弱社区的与热量相关的死亡率更高.
研究的目的:
- 检查马里科帕县与热量相关的住院病例和空气温度之间的关系.
- 通过社会经济和建筑环境数据定义的不同热脆弱性水平 (高,中,低) 评估住院风险.
- 为了确定特定的温度值和与热有关的发病风险增加.
主要方法:
- 分析了马里科帕县的发病率数据.
- 将人口普查区组分为高,中和低热易受伤害的分类,使用衍生的热易受伤害指数.
- 统计分析与热量相关的住院风险相对于每日最高空气温度,以26°C的值.
主要成果:
- 确定了26°C的温度值,超过这个值,与热量相关的住院住院风险迅速增加.
- 住院住院的相对风险在高脆弱性地区最高,在低脆弱性地区最低.
- 在46°C,相对风险在15.71 (低脆弱性) 到162.46 (高脆弱性) 之间,与26°C的基线相比.
结论:
- 高脆弱性人口普查区组面临与热量相关的住院住院风险不成比例.
- 调查结果强调需要针对性适应政策和对脆弱城市地区的投资.
- 结果可以为玛丽科帕县与热有关的发病率的定量风险评估提供信息.
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