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一个使用Dynamica-EGO的协议来建模未来的土地使用场景
Luís Valença Pinto1, Miguel Inácio1, Eduardo Gomes2,3
1Environmental Management Research Laboratory, Mykolas Romeris University, Vilnius, Lithuania.
MethodsX
|April 16, 2025
概括
本研究介绍了使用Dynamica-Ego软件预测土地使用变化的详细方案. 经过验证的方法模拟了未来的土地使用场景,为城市规划提供了高可靠性.
科学领域:
- 生态与环境科学 生态与环境科学
- 地理信息系统 地理信息系统
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 土地利用变化是影响生态系统动态的关键因素,由复杂的生态,社会,经济和政治力量驱动.
- 准确地预测土地使用变化对于可持续的城市发展和环境管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和介绍一个全面的,逐步的协议,用于预测土地使用变化,使用Dynamica-Ego软件.
- 在不同的场景下,通过模拟到2050年的土地利用变化来证明该议定书的应用,在立陶宛的考纳斯.
主要方法:
- 该协议涉及定义时间框架和未来场景,确定驱动力,数据收集和组织,以及景观指标计算.
- 关键的建模步骤包括准备拉斯特立方体,计算证据权重 (WoE),评估多线性和验证土地用途变化模型.
- 基于开发的协议,Dinamica-Ego软件用于模拟未来的土地使用模式.
主要成果:
- 该协议提供了可复制的土地利用变化建模方法,适用于任何城市地区.
- 对立陶宛考纳斯的"商业常态"和"城市化"场景进行了模拟,预测到2050年的变化.
- 使用该协议开发的土地用途变化模型通过严格的验证证明了高可靠性.
结论:
- 本议定书为预测土地使用变化提供了一个强大且经过验证的框架.
- 这种方法可以显著帮助城市规划者和政策制定者预测和管理未来的土地使用动态.
- 结合该协议,Dinamica-Ego软件证明了可靠的土地使用变化模拟和场景规划的有效性.
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