在哈萨克斯坦预测特定年龄的死亡率:对李-卡特模型的替代方法
Berik Koichubekov1, Bauyrzhan Omarkulov2, Meruyert Mukhanova2
1Department of Informatics and Biostatistics, Karaganda Medical University, Gogol St. 40, Karaganda 100008, Kazakhstan.
概括
准确的死亡率预测在哈萨克斯坦需要分别分析儿童和成年人由于不同的趋势. 这种方法改善了预测,显示大多数年龄组的死亡率有望下降.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 预测特定年龄的死亡率对于哈萨克斯坦的公共卫生规划和资源分配至关重要.
- 准确的预测可以为改善健康结果的决策提供信息.
研究的目的:
- 分析哈萨克斯坦从1991年到2023年的年龄特定死亡率趋势.
- 评估李-卡特模型及其扩展用于死亡率预测的有效性.
- 通过单独分析子群体来提高预测准确性.
主要方法:
- 哈萨克斯坦 (1991-2023) 年度死亡数据分析.
- 李-卡特模型及其扩展的应用.
- 在儿童和成人亚群中对死亡率趋势的比较分析.
- 包括和评估社会经济因素.
主要成果:
- 标准的李-卡特模型提供了不令人满意的死亡率预测.
- 纳入社会经济因素并没有提高预测准确度.
- 将儿童和成人亚种群分开显著提高了预测准确度,因为死亡率趋势明显 (儿童的线性下降,成人非线性下降).
- 在7年的预测中获得了高准确度 (误差<10%),在8-10年的预测中获得了良好的准确度 (10-20%的误差).
结论:
- 单独分析儿童和成人死亡率对于准确预测在哈萨克斯坦至关重要.
- 预计在2024-2033年期间,大多数年龄组的死亡率将继续下降.
- 预计80岁以上的人群的死亡率会略有暂时增加,随后会出现下降趋势.
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