极端热,寒和空气污染事件对卢森堡过度死亡率的短期影响
1Epidemiology and Statistics Unit, Health Directorate, Ministry of Health and Social Security, L-1433 Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
概括
极端的高温,低温和空气污染显著增加了卢森堡的过度死亡率. 细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 构成最大的风险,尽管由于污染事件减少,与PM2.5相关的死亡人数正在下降.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候科学是气候科学.
背景情况:
- 极端天气事件和空气污染对公众健康构成重大风险.
- 评估这些环境因素对死亡率的短期影响对于准备工作至关重要.
- 卢森堡对这些风险的特殊脆弱性需要进行本地研究.
研究的目的:
- 量化极端高温,低温和空气污染 (PM2.5) 事件与卢森堡 (1998-2023) 过度自然死亡率之间的关联.
- 估计这些环境暴露的可归因死亡率.
- 分析PM2.5相关死亡率的趋势,并将极端死亡事件置于背景.
主要方法:
- 使用了高分辨率的ERA5温度和EMEP MSC-W空气污染物数据.
- 使用分布式回归与后勤分布来建模与环境事件相对的每周死亡率p-score.
- 计算了极端死亡事件的年龄标准化死亡率和几率比率.
主要成果:
- 发现极端的高温,低温和PM2.5事件显著增加了过度死亡率.
- 可归因的死亡率为热量为2.8/100,000/年,寒冷为1.1和PM2.5.5为6.3.
- 由于污染事件减少,与PM2.5相关的死亡率有所下降;然而,PM2.5事件仍然使死亡风险每天增加1.11倍.
结论:
- 极端环境条件,特别是PM2.5,是卢森堡过度死亡的重要驱动因素.
- 结果支持使用分布式建模进行风险评估,并为公共卫生应急规划提供信息.
- 在PM2.5死亡率的下降趋势强调了污染控制措施的影响.
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