全球环境塑料分散在经合组织的政策情景下,朝着2060年发展
Jeroen E Sonke1, Alkuin Koenig2,3, Théo Segur1
1Géosciences Environnement Toulouse, CNRS/IRD/Université de Toulouse, 31400 Toulouse, France.
Science advances
|April 16, 2025
概括
全球塑料垃圾流入海洋的数量是以前估计的4-9倍. 即使有雄心勃勃的政策,由于遗留的废物,微塑料污染仍将持续,需要陆地整治工作.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 污染控制 污染控制
背景情况:
- 管理不善的塑料废物对水生生态系统构成重大威胁.
- 经合组织等组织的现有路线图旨在减轻塑料污染.
- 准确的全球塑料预算和运输途径对于有效的政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在各种政策情景下模拟全球塑料和微塑料分散.
- 建立一个经过修订的全球塑料预算,并量化陆地到海洋运输.
- 评估塑料垃圾在2060年以后对海洋环境的长期影响.
主要方法:
- 使用陆地-海洋-大气相结合模型进行分散模拟.
- 制定了2015年全球塑料预算.
- 模拟了两个雄心勃勃的经济合作与发展组织 (OECD) 政策场景到2060年.
主要成果:
- 修订后的海洋塑料总量估计为263千克 (Tg).
- 据估计,陆地到海的塑料运输每年约为14 Tg,远远超过了经合组织的数据.
- 模拟预测,在2045年左右,塑料运输的峰值,随后下降.
- 预计微塑料的高环境度将在2060年之后继续存在.
结论:
- 目前对塑料泄漏到海洋中的估计很可能被低估了.
- 雄心勃勃的政策可以减少塑料运输,但不能在2060年前消除这个问题.
- 传统的陆地塑料废物需要积极的整治,以应对持续的微塑料污染.
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