枪支的可用性和枪支事件:使用美国狩猎季节开始的准实验分析
Christopher M Worsham1,2,3, Charles F Bray1, Anupam B Jena4,2,5
1Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
概括
鹿狩猎季节的开始与枪支事件增加了12.3%,包括与狩猎和非狩猎相关的事件. 越来越多的枪支可用性可能推动了这些事件,突出了需要采取安全措施的必要性.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 枪支伤害预防 预防枪支伤害
背景情况:
- 在鹿狩猎季节,枪支和弹药的可用性增加.
- 了解这种季节性可用性对枪支事件的影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查鹿狩猎季节开始与枪支事件之间的关联.
- 为了区分与狩猎有关的和与狩猎无关的枪支事件的影响.
主要方法:
- 从2016年到2019年,在美国10个州进行了准实验性分析.
- 在狩猎季开幕之前,期间和之后的每周枪支事件率的比较.
- 经国家固定效应调整,以控制未观察到的州级因素.
主要成果:
- 狩猎季节开始时,总体枪支事件的相对增加为12.3%.
- 狩猎事件 (566%),自杀 (11.1%) 和家庭暴力 (27.4%) 显著增加.
- 与酒精有关的事件 (87.5%),防御性使用 (27.8%) 和抢劫 (30.4%) 也出现了显著的上升.
结论:
- 狩猎季节的开幕与狩猎和非狩猎枪支事件的增加有关.
- 增加枪支和弹药的可用性是最可能的原因.
- 在狩猎季开始时促进枪支安全可能会减少枪支事件.
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