对于中断时间序列分析的细分回归中的系数解释
Yongzhe Wang1, Narissa J Nonzee2, Haonan Zhang3
1Department of Surgery, City of Hope Comprehensive Cancer Center, Duarte, CA, 91010, USA.
BMC medical research methodology
|April 16, 2025
概括
间断时间序列 (ITS) 分析使用了带有两个参数化的细分回归. 虽然代表了相同的模型,但不同的系数解释可能会影响干预效应计算.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 卫生政策分析 卫生政策分析
背景情况:
- 分段回归是中断时间序列 (ITS) 分析的标准方法.
- 对于细分回归,存在两个初级方程参数化.
- 解释系数的差异可能导致用户在ITS分析中的误解.
研究的目的:
- 为了澄清在ITS分析中使用的两个常见的细分回归参数化之间的不同系数解释.
- 为了说明这些参数化差异如何影响干预效应的估计和解释.
- 在ITS研究中提供准确分析和报告的指导.
主要方法:
- 导出分析结果来比较两种针对ITS的细分回归参数化.
- 将参数化应用到一个真实世界的数据集,评估意大利的吸烟监管政策.
- 专注于连续结果,并澄清了系数解释和干预效应计算.
主要成果:
- 确认了两个参数化模型相同的底层细分回归.
- 证明由于参数化,直接干预效应的估计方式不同.
- 确定干预实施的系数作为解释和影响计算的关键差异化因素.
结论:
- 两个常见的细分回归参数化,虽然模拟相同的ITS,但产生不同的系数解释.
- 研究人员必须仔细解释系数并计算干预效应,无论选择的参数化如何.
- 意识到这些差异对于ITS研究中准确的政策影响评估至关重要.
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