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气候,植被,人:解开不同时间尺度的火灾控制
Sandy P Harrison1,2, Olivia Haas1,2, Patrick J Bartlein3
1Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society, Imperial College London, London SW7 2BW, UK.
概括
人类活动显著影响着消防制度,而景观的碎片化在历史上减少了火灾. 然而,预计到21世纪末,气候变化将增加火灾活动.
科学领域:
- 生态科学 生态科学
- 环境科学环境科学
- 气候科学是气候科学.
背景情况:
- 人类活动极大地影响了全球的消防制度.
- 人类发展造成的景观碎片化往往限制了火灾,但影响因气候和植被而异.
- 解开消防制度驱动者的纠是复杂的,因为它在各种时间尺度上的相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 探索气候,植被,人类活动和火灾制度之间的复杂关系.
- 分析这些关系在空间和时间上是如何发展的.
- 在气候变化下预测未来的消防制度变化.
主要方法:
- 对古环境,历史和最近的观测数据进行统计和建模分析.
- 从区域到全球范围的分析,包括环境和生物梯度.
- 检查火灾制度的变化随着时间的推移和不同的空间尺度.
主要成果:
- 气候和气候驱动的植被变化是主要的消防制度驱动因素,直到工业革命.
- 狩猎采集和新石器时代的农业实践对区域火灾制度没有明显的影响.
- 自19世纪后期以来,人类的景观碎片化主要减少了火灾的发生,超过了点火的影响.
结论:
- 人类对消防制度的影响已经从间接影响转向直接的景观碎片化影响.
- 预计气候变化将成为增加火灾活动的主要驱动因素,到2100年将超过碎片化效应.
- 未来的消防制度将以气候驱动的增加为特征,与最近的分裂驱动的减少形成鲜明对比.
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