2009年至2023年高原地区流感发病率的时空演变模式
Sheng-Lin Qin1,2, Hai-Jun Bai2, Ping Deng2
1Qinghai Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xining, China.
Frontiers in public health
|April 17, 2025
概括
地理信息系统 (GIS) 分析显示,青海流感发病率存在显著的空间和时间差异. 由于东部扩张和转移流行病中心,有针对性的预防策略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 空间分析 空间分析
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 流感在全球范围内构成了重大公共卫生挑战.
- 了解流感的时空动态对于有效控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析2009年至2023年青海省流感发病率的时空分布和风险因素.
- 确定高风险地区,了解流感的传播模式.
主要方法:
- 利用地理信息系统 (GIS) 技术进行时空分析.
- 采用空间自相对应,集群分析,热点分析,重心转移模型和标准偏差圆.
- 分析了来自中国传染病监测系统的流感监测数据.
主要成果:
- 流感发病率表现出显著的波动,在2019年和2023年达到峰值.
- 在多年内观察到显著的正空间自相关性.
- 在青海东部确定了高发病率群,随着时间的推移,流行中心向东南移动.
结论:
- 青海的流感发病率显示出显著的时间空间异质性.
- 需要有差异化和精确的预防和控制策略.
- 调整战略以适应不断变化的流行病趋势对于公共卫生至关重要.
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