将对抗措施的预期价值与对恐怖主义的应用划分
Richard S John1, Robin L Dillon2, William J Burns3,4
1University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California 90089.
概括
本研究引入了一个框架,用于在效益成本分析中评估不利的威. 它量化了对抗措施的好处,将威,脆弱性和后果缓解分开,以改善决策.
科学领域:
- 决策分析 决策分析
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 安全研究 安全研究
背景情况:
- 效益成本分析 (BCA) 对于美国机构的决策至关重要.
- 在BCA中量化敌对威具有重大挑战.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个新的框架来计算对策实施中威的价值.
- 将对抗措施的好处分为减少威胁 (威),减少脆弱性和减轻后果.
主要方法:
- 引入了对抗措施实施预期价值 (EVCI) 的概念.
- 根据不完善控制的预期值定义的EVCI.
- 将EVCI分为三个不同的好处组件:威,减少脆弱性和减轻后果.
主要成果:
- 开发了一种方法来量化每个福利组件的独特贡献.
- 将框架应用于有关对载人防空系统的飞机保护的现实实例.
- 证明有能力明确分别考虑威,脆弱性和后果减轻.
结论:
- 拟议的框架提供了一个结构化的方法,用于将威纳入BCA.
- 提供了可量化的洞察力,了解反制措施如何有效降低恐怖主义风险.
- 通过提供对抗措施价值的更清晰理解,增强了程序决策.
更多相关视频
06:42Continuous Theta Burst Stimulation of the Posterior Medial Frontal Cortex to Experimentally Reduce Ideological Threat Responses
Published on: September 28, 2018
11.5K
13:04Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
Published on: September 19, 2012
12.0K
相关概念视频
Determination of Expected Frequency
2.1K
Suppose one wants to test independence between the two variables of a contingency table. The values in the table constitute the observed frequencies of the dataset. But how does one determine the expected frequency of the dataset? One of the important assumptions is that the two variables are independent, which means the variables do not influence each other. For independent variables, the statistical probability of any event involving both variables is calculated by multiplying the individual...
2.1K
Expected Value
3.8K
The expected value is known as the "long-term" average or mean. This means that over the long term of experimenting over and over, you would expect this average. The expected average is represented by the symbol μ. It is calculated as follows:
3.8K
Probability Histograms
11.0K
A probability histogram is a visual representation of a probability distribution. Similar a typical histogram, the probability histogram consists of contiguous (adjoining) boxes. It has both a horizontal axis and a vertical axis. The horizontal axis is labeled with what the data represents. The vertical axis is labeled with probability. Each rectangular bar in the histogram is 1 unit wide, which suggests that the area under each bar equals the probability, P(x), where x is 1, 2, 3, and so on.
11.0K
Decision Making: P-value Method
5.2K
The process of hypothesis testing based on the P-value method includes calculating the P- value using the sample data and interpreting it.
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses: a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can...
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses: a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can...
5.2K
Introduction To Survival Analysis
119
Survival analysis is a statistical method used to study time-to-event data, where the "event" might represent outcomes like death, disease relapse, system failure, or recovery. A unique feature of survival data is censoring, which occurs when the event of interest has not been observed for some individuals during the study period. This requires specialized techniques to handle incomplete data effectively.
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time...
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time...
119
Types of Biopharmaceutical Studies: Controlled and Non-Controlled Approaches
106
Biopharmaceutical studies constitute a vital field aiming to enhance drug delivery methods and refine therapeutic approaches, drawing upon diverse interdisciplinary knowledge. In research methodologies, the choice between controlled and non-controlled studies significantly influences the study's reliability and accuracy.
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast,...
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast,...
106
