1998-2022年丹麦肝硬化流行病学,以及2030年预测
Linda Skibsted Kornerup1, Frederik Kraglund1, Gro Askgaard1,2
1Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark.
JHEP reports : innovation in hepatology
|April 17, 2025
概括
在丹麦,与酒精有关的肝病引起的肝硬化病例正在减少,而与代谢功能障碍相关的脂肪性肝病则在增加. 非ALD肝硬化很快将超过ALD肝硬化,患者年龄较大,并患有更多的并发症.
科学领域:
- 肝病学 肝病学是一种肝病学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 与酒精有关的肝病 (ALD) 肝硬化发病率在丹麦正在下降.
- 肥胖症正在增加,导致代谢功能障碍相关的脂肪性肝病 (MASLD) 的增加.
- 肝硬化目前和未来的流行病学对公共卫生,研究和医疗保健规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开展丹麦肝硬化病的最新流行病学研究,包括病因.
- 预测到2030年的肝硬化趋势.
- 分析年龄,日历年和出生年对肝硬化发病率的影响.
主要方法:
- 对丹麦全国医疗保健登记册的分析 (1998-2022年).
- 肝硬化病的分类为ALD和非ALD.
- 采用年龄周期队列模型进行发病率分析和预测.
- 卡普兰-梅尔函数用于生存概率评估.
主要成果:
- 包括30747名 (76%) 患有ALD肝硬化患者和9548名 (24%) 患有非ALD肝硬化患者.
- 非ALD肝硬化患者年龄较大 (平均年龄66岁与59岁相比),并患有更多的并发症.
- ALD肝硬化比例从约80% (1998-2014) 降至58% (2022). 在美国,ALD肝硬化比例从约80% (1998-2014) 降至58% (2022).
- 整体肝硬化患病率在2024年达到顶峰;从2027年起,非ALD肝硬化预计将超过ALD.
- 诊断后一年内死亡率正在下降.
结论:
- 丹麦的肝硬化流行病学正在发生转变.
- 未来的患者将更老,ALD病例更少,MASLD病例更多.
- 增加MASLD患者的预期寿命和并发症将造成更大的医疗负担.
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