开拓新领域:第一次AquaCrop校准和对阿拉伯咖啡的气候变化影响评估
Cássia Gabriele Dias1, Fabrina Bolzan Martins1, Minella Alves Martins2
1Federal University of Itajubá, Natural Resource Institute, C.P. 50, 37500-903 Itajubá, MG, Brazil.
The Science of the total environment
|April 17, 2025
概括
气候变化影响了巴西阿拉比卡咖啡的产量. 在AquaCrop模型项目中,未来的产量有所不同,一些地区的产量有所增加,而另一些地区的产量有所减少,这凸显了为确保咖啡生产稳定性而采取适应性策略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 农业学是一种农业学.
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化对咖啡产量稳定性构成重大威胁,尤其影响全球领先的阿拉比卡咖啡出口国巴西.
- 准确的产量建模对于制定适应气候变化的农业战略和咖啡行业有效规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了参数化,校准和验证巴西阿拉伯咖啡的AquaCrop模型.
- 通过使用经过验证的AquaCrop模型,在各种气候变化场景下预测未来的阿拉伯咖啡产量.
主要方法:
- 从2014年到2019年,AquaCrop模型在巴西主要咖啡种植地区的58个市镇中应用.
- 模型校准和验证表明,在模拟阿拉比卡咖啡产量 (RMSE ~0.15 t ha-1 ,MBE ~0.007 t ha-1 ,d-index ~0.76) 中的高精度.
- 未来收益率预测使用了来自9个通用循环模型 (CMIP6) 的每日气候数据,这些数据来自三个共享社会经济路径 (SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5).
主要成果:
- 预计咖啡种植周期持续时间的变化和巴西各地的异质产量反应.
- 预计产量增加 (0.250.55t ha-1) 在一个带从东南部的圣保罗到南部的米纳斯吉拉斯州.
- 预计产量下降 (-0.05-0.15t ha-1) 在东北部的米纳斯吉拉斯州.
结论:
- 尽管许多地区预计产量将增加,但适应性措施对于减轻气候变化对咖啡生产的影响至关重要.
- 该研究强调了本地化产量预测对于巴西咖啡种植的有针对性的气候适应战略的重要性.
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