评估塞尔维亚首都COVID-19死亡率:对过度死亡的基于模型的分析
Dane Cvijanovic1, Nikola Grubor2, Nina Rajovic2
1Department of Cardiovascular Diseases, University Clinical Center Zvezdara, Belgrade, Serbia.
JMIR public health and surveillance
|April 17, 2025
概括
贝尔格莱德的最终COVID-19死亡数据准确地反映了过度死亡,其中大部分归因于SARS-CoV-2. 分析证实了数据的存在.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 在塞尔维亚的初步和最终COVID-19死亡数据集之间发现了差异.
- 与年度重要统计数据相比,初步数据低估了死亡人数.
研究的目的:
- 评估塞尔维亚贝尔格莱德最终COVID-19死亡数据集的准确性.
- 量化COVID-19对贝尔格莱德死亡率的影响.
- 在最终数据集中调查潜在的死亡原因错误归因.
主要方法:
- 利用贝尔格莱德 (2015-2021) 的年度死亡记录和死亡原因.
- 采用标准化和建模技术来估计过度死亡.
- 应用了一种混合效应等级的Poisson通用线性回归模型来预测死亡率.
主要成果:
- 贝尔格莱德估计的过度死亡人数为: 3175 (2020) 和 8321 (2021).
- 超过报告的COVID-19死亡人数的比率为1.07.
- 在各个年龄组观察到显著的死亡率增加,特别是在老年人群中.
结论:
- 完成的贝尔格莱德死亡率数据是可靠的COVID-19影响分析.
- 2020-2021年期间的过度死亡率主要与SARS-CoV-2有关.
- 有证据表明,对非COVID-19死亡原因的错误归因很小.
关键词:
在 COVID-19 疫情中,COVID-19 的影响力影响.这是SARS-Cov-2病毒.塞尔维亚 塞尔维亚 塞尔维亚 塞尔维亚集中式医疗保健 集中式医疗保健冠状病毒冠状病毒病毒死亡率 死亡率 死亡率死亡人数 死亡人数人口密度很高的人口密度很高.过度的死亡率过度的死亡率传染病是一种传染性疾病.流行病是一种流行病.公共卫生公共卫生.肺动脉肺动脉是什么意思呼吸道 呼吸道 呼吸道监控监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督城市城市城市城市城市城市城市更多相关视频
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