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在过去的70年里,变暖导致了较早和较晚的融雪洪水
Yuhan Guo1,2, Yuting Yang3,4, Dawen Yang5,6
1State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|April 17, 2025
概括
气候变暖影响融雪洪水,但时间是复杂的. 虽然较早的雪融是常见的,但较慢的融化速度可以延迟某些地区的洪水,挑战现有的气候变暖假设.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 气候变暖正在减少寒冷地区的雪地覆盖.
- 这影响了融雪的洪水系统,并可能造成水文和生态后果.
- 以前的研究表明,变暖总是导致较早的融雪洪水.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候变暖对融雪洪水时间的复杂影响.
- 挑战目前普遍存在的模式,即变暖总是推进雪融洪水的时间.
主要方法:
- 利用了从1950年到2020年在2339个北半球水域的溪流观测.
- 采用基于事件的分析来区分洪水产生机制.
- 分析了早期融雪和减速融雪速度之间的相互作用.
主要成果:
- 在变暖的条件下,融雪洪水的时间可以提前或延迟.
- 大约30%的分析流域经历了延迟的融雪洪水.
- 在半球范围内观察到融雪洪水时间的小幅整体变化 (-0.87±2.4天/十年).
结论:
- 气候变暖和融雪洪水时间之间的关系比以前理解的要复杂得多.
- 较慢的融雪速率可以抵消或逆转较早融雪开始的影响.
- 这些发现需要对水文变化的理解进行修订,以应对全球变暖.
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