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走向更安全的钢铁运营,使用多模型框架来预测事故和风险评估模拟
Shatrudhan Pandey1, Abhishek Kumar Singh2, Shreyanshu Parhi3
1Department of Production and Industrial Engineering, Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra, Ranchi, 835215, India. er.shatrudhanp@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|April 17, 2025
概括
本研究引入了多模型人工智能 (AI) 方法来预测钢铁行业的事故,显著提高了比传统方法的准确性. 集成的人工智能模型识别根源原因并增强安全策略,以更好地管理风险.
科学领域:
- 工业安全 工业安全 工业安全
- 人工智能的人工智能
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 钢铁等高风险行业在预测和预防事故方面面临重大挑战.
- 传统方法往往缺乏有效风险管理所需的准确性和全面性.
- 整合各种人工智能技术为增强预测建模能力提供了全新的途径.
研究的目的:
- 引入和评估一个集贝叶斯网络 (BN),机器学习 (ML),自然语言处理 (NLP),基于代理的建模 (ABM) 和生存分析的多模型方法.
- 提高高风险钢铁行业事故原因模型的预测准确度.
- 证明AI模型在证实假设和增加预测准确性方面的互补性质.
主要方法:
- 使用了结合贝叶斯网络 (BN),机器学习 (ML),自然语言处理 (NLP) 与情感分析,基于代理的建模 (ABM) 和生存分析的多模型方法.
- 应用AI模型来分析事故数据,确定因果因素 (机器条件,人为错误),并评估安全协议的遵守.
- 采用ABM来模拟个人防护设备的合规性和维护情况,以及生存分析来评估干预时间.
主要成果:
- 与传统方法相比,基于人工智能的模型显示出更好的预测准确性.
- 贝叶斯网络确定机器条件和人为错误是事故的主要原因.
- NLP分析显示了与安全不合规相关的负面情绪;ABM突出了PPE和维护因素;生存分析证实了及时干预的好处.
结论:
- 综合人工智能方法显著提高了钢铁行业的积极事故预测和风险管理.
- 人工智能模型提供了对潜在风险因素的更深入的见解,补充了传统的安全策略.
- 来自模型的时间洞察力有助于优化干预时间,以提高安全策略的有效性.
相关概念视频
01:22Design Consideration
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Designing a structure involves a series of considerations, primarily the material's ultimate strength, calculated through tests that measure changes under increased force until the material reaches its breaking point or limit. The ultimate load, where the material breaks, is divided by its original cross-sectional area, resulting in the ultimate normal stress or strength. The ultimate shearing stress is another significant factor taken into account.
The factor of safety is another key...
The factor of safety is another key...
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01:11Hazard Rate
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The hazard rate, also known as the hazard function or failure rate, is a statistical measure used to describe the instantaneous rate at which an event occurs, given that the event has not yet happened. From a probabilistic perspective, it represents the likelihood that a subject will experience the event in a very small time interval, conditional on surviving up to the beginning of that interval. In terms of frequency, the hazard rate can be viewed as the ratio of the number of events to the...
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01:21Design Example: Creating a Hydraulic Model of a Dam Spillway
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01:30Typical Model Studies
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01:30Frames
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01:04Applications of Stress
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Consider a structure made of a boom and a rod designed to support a load. These two components are connected by a pin and stabilized by brackets and pins. The boom and the rod are detached from their supports to assess the different stresses imposed on this structure, and a free-body diagram is drawn. Then, all the forces applied, including the load acting on the structure, are identified. The reaction forces exerted on both the boom and the rod are computed using the equilibrium equations.
The...
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