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Updated: May 11, 2025

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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在中国供应链的多层网络中绘制水经济级联风险的地图
Jinling Li1,2, Miaomiao Liu1,3, Yuli Shan2
1State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
Environmental science & technology
|April 18, 2025
概括
当地的水资源短缺可以通过供应链造成经济风险. 这项研究模拟了中国的级联风险,确定了易受水冲击影响的关键部门和地区,并提出了弹性战略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 网络科学 网络科学
背景情况:
- 水资源短缺对供应链构成重大风险,可能引发连续的经济失败.
- 现有的模型难以捕捉互联的经济部门中中断的复杂传播.
研究的目的:
- 为中国制定和应用国家多层级级级联风险模型.
- 模拟水资源短缺冲击在经济体系中的传播.
- 确定关键部门,地理位置和弹性战略.
主要方法:
- 使用2017年多区域输入-输出数据构建国家多层级级联排风险模型.
- 模拟冲击传播以分析级联效应.
- 场景分析,以评估不同缓解策略的影响.
主要成果:
- 缺水冲击的来源部门和地理位置极大地影响其经济影响.
- 在不同经济层和省份观察到高级联风险概率 (高达96%) .
- 食品生产,化工炼和能源供应被确定为关键的放大部门.
结论:
- 多样化供应来源可以减少整个系统的经济崩20-40%.
- 提高水生产效率可以减少10-22%的经济干扰.
- 提高网络弹性需要在关键领域进行战略干预,并有效管理水资源.
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