工业链风险是低碳技术在水泥工业中的传播
Biying Yu1, Jiahao Fu2, Ying Dai3
1Center for Energy and Environment Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100181, China; Basic Science Center for Energy and Climate Change, Beijing, 100081, China; School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100181, China; Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management, Beijing, 100081, China; Beijing Laboratory for System Engineering of Carbon Neutrality, China.
在水泥行业的水泥行业.
科学领域:
- 工业生态学 工业生态学
- 可持续制造 可持续制造 可持续制造
- 技术评估 技术评估
背景情况:
- 水泥行业的低碳转型需要采用新技术.
- 大规模采用影响上游/下游行业:资本,劳动力,排放.
- 评估这些影响对于工业链安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种方法来评估在水泥生产中采用低碳技术的产业链安全风险.
- 根据碳中和目标量化对资本,劳动力和排放的影响.
主要方法:
- 综合技术生命周期理论和用专利数据估计技术透率的物流模型.
- 构建了一个可变系数模型来评估对资本,劳动力和污染物排放的影响.
- 在碳峰值和中性目标下,分析了整个工业链的风险.
主要成果:
- 由于废热回收和多道煤炭燃烧,预计资本需求增加1001.8亿元人民币 (2024-2030年).
- 估计净劳动力需求增加了89.4万人.
- 预计污染强度的净增长为0.57,对铁金属加工和金属制品制造存在风险.
结论:
- 该研究确定了特定行业 (例如,铁金属) 的潜在资本和劳动力短缺以及劳动力余 (例如,煤炭开采).
- 金属制品制造业面临着增加环境影响的最高风险.
- 积极的风险评估对于确保水泥行业安全和可持续的低碳转型至关重要.
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