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空气污染和气候变化对新加坡登革热的影响:时间序列分析
Diyar Mailepessov1,2, Janet Ong3, Joel Aik3,4
1Environmental Health Institute, National Environment Agency, 11 Biopolis Way #08-01, Helios Block, Singapore, 138667, Singapore. diyar_mailepessov@nea.gov.sg.
Scientific reports
|April 18, 2025
概括
空气污染,特别是颗粒物和一氧化碳,与新加坡登革热风险增加有关. 环境温度也起着作用,影响空气质量对登革热传播的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候变化与健康问题
背景情况:
- 空气质量和呼吸道/心血管疾病之间存在已确定的联系.
- 空气质量和登革热之间的关系,这是一个重要的全球蚊子传播疾病,仍然不太了解.
- 新加坡是一个热带地区,登革热的负担很高,为研究这些关联提供了一个独特的环境.
研究的目的:
- 调查环境空气污染物与新加坡实验室确诊的登革热病例之间的短期关联.
- 探索环境温度对空气质量和登革热发病率之间的关系的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 框架.
- 分析了2009年至2019年新加坡登革热报告和空气污染物度 (PM2.5,PM10,CO,O3,NO2,SO2) 的数据.
- 评估了短期关联和环境温度的改变作用.
主要成果:
- 在PM2.5,PM10和CO之间发现了与登革热风险高达48天的积极关联.
- 臭氧 (O3) 和二氧化 (NO2) 与登革热有负面关联.
- 观察到环境温度和登革热之间的非线性正相关性,温度改变了颗粒物对登革热风险的影响.
结论:
- 特定的空气污染物,包括颗粒物和一氧化碳,与新加坡登革热风险增加有关.
- 环境温度显著改变了空气质量和登革热之间的关系.
- 研究结果可以为针对性,短期的登革热控制策略和基于空气质量变化的资源分配提供信息.
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