揭开建筑事故的进化模式:基于平均相互信息理论的风险评估框架
Jian Liu1,2, Hanqiang Tang1, Rui Feng3,4
1School of Resource and Safety Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China.
Scientific reports
|April 18, 2025
概括
这项研究揭示了导致建筑事故的关键因素,包括指挥违规和安全管理不足. 实施有针对性的安全投资和综合系统可以显著降低事故率并提高项目安全.
科学领域:
- 建筑安全工程工程 建筑安全工程
- 事故原因分析 事故原因分析
- 风险管理理论 风险管理理论
背景情况:
- 现有的建筑安全研究往往忽视了事故的进化动态和累积风险效应.
- 目前的风险评估往往只关注单一的观点 (人,设施,环境,管理),没有系统的分析.
- 需要一种全面的方法来了解事故的演变,并改进风险评估方法.
研究的目的:
- 研究受危险因素影响的建筑事故的进化模式.
- 开发一种新的风险评估模型,将多种因果关系视角整合起来.
- 为加强建筑安全管理和减少事故频率提供可操作的见解.
主要方法:
- 对有助于事故演变的危险和有害因素的分析.
- 基于平均相互信息理论的风险评估模型的开发.
- 确定建筑事故的直接原因和与管理相关的原因.
主要成果:
- 确定了"指挥违规","指挥错误"和"非法操作"作为事故的主要直接原因.
- "不充分的职业安全和健康管理结构和人员配置"和"不充分或未实施的职业健康管理系统"成为关键管理因素.
- 开发的模型提供了一个系统的方法来评估建筑中的风险.
结论:
- 建筑事故的演变受到直接运营失败和系统管理缺陷的组合的影响.
- 有效的安全管理需要解决直接原因和潜在的管理问题.
- 该研究为建筑企业提供了实际指导,以加强安全投资和管理系统集成,从而提高整体项目安全.
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