增长的堆叠模型:使用国际大规模评估预测教育可持续发展目标的进展步伐的方法
David Kaplan1, Kjorte Harra1, Jonas Stampka2
1Educational Psychology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.
Psychometrika
|April 21, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了贝叶斯堆叠,以改善对国家教育可持续发展目标进展的预测. 这种方法为监测教育趋势提供了比单个模型更好的准确性.
科学领域:
- 教育测量教育的测量
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 国际教育教育国际教育
背景情况:
- 监测国家在教育目标方面的进展对于评估全球发展至关重要.
- 现有的增长曲线模型用于估计进步风险过度自信的推断,由于单一模型的选择.
- 联合国已经明确了教育的可持续发展目标,需要强有力的进展监测.
研究的目的:
- 演示构建最佳预测增长模型以监测国家进展.
- 适应和应用贝叶斯堆叠到组合模型来预测教育进步.
- 为了减轻与教育成果分析中单一预测模型选择相关的风险.
主要方法:
- 利用贝叶斯堆叠,从一组增长模型中创建预测分布的混合物.
- 将该方法应用于国际学生评估计划 (PISA) 的国家级数据.
- 使用Kullback-Leibler分歧评估预测准确性.
主要成果:
- 与个人增长模型相比,贝叶斯堆叠显示出更高的预测准确性.
- 整体方法有效地减轻了从单个模型中得出过度自信的推理的风险.
- 该研究为监测教育可持续发展目标的进展提供了强有力的框架.
结论:
- 贝叶斯堆叠提供了一个更可靠的方法来预测国家层面的教育进步.
- 这种方法提高了与教育可持续发展目标相关的监测趋势的准确性.
- 这些发现支持在教育研究和政策中使用集合建模技术.
相关概念视频
Sustainable Development
13.1K
As the human population continues to grow and use resources, we must be mindful of our planet’s natural limits. Sustainable development provides a pathway to maintain and improve human life now while also ensuring that future generations will have the resources that they need. The long-term success of sustainability efforts rests on understanding the interplay between human actions and ecological systems.
13.1K
Reliability and Validity
12.6K
Reliability and validity are two important considerations that must be made with any type of data collection. Reliability refers to the ability to consistently produce a given result. In the context of psychological research, this would mean that any instruments or tools used to collect data do so in consistent, reproducible ways.
12.6K
Introduction to Developmental Psychology
79
Developmental psychology explores the changes and continuities in human abilities throughout life, encompassing physical, cognitive, linguistic, and social dimensions. Human development is not restricted to growth, but includes aspects of decline, particularly in physical abilities as individuals age. Developmental psychologists seek to understand how people change as they age and how their mental and social skills evolve.
Developmental Milestones
A key concept in developmental psychology is...
Developmental Milestones
A key concept in developmental psychology is...
79
Applications of Life Tables
30
Life tables are versatile across various fields, providing a quantitative basis for analyzing mortality and survival rates. Whether used by demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, or sociologists, life tables offer valuable insights into the dynamics of life and death, facilitating informed decisions in public health, insurance, conservation, and beyond. Their broad applicability highlights the interconnectedness of demographic data with practical outcomes in everyday life and strategic...
30


