欧洲非正式家庭照顾的负担,2000-2050年:微模拟建模研究
Andrea Cattaneo1, Andrea Vitali1, Daniele Regazzoni1
1Department of Management, Information and Production Engineering, University of Bergamo, Bergamo, Italy.
The Lancet regional health. Europe
|April 21, 2025
概括
到2050年,欧洲的非正式家庭护理将大幅增加,增长近50%. 这种日益增长的负担凸显了对护理人员和护理接收者的更好的支持系统的需求.
科学领域:
- 老年学和人口统计学
- 公共卫生和医疗保健系统
- 家庭社会学 家庭社会学
背景情况:
- 在欧洲,非正式照顾的需求正在增加,家庭成员提供了至关重要的支持.
- 这种护理负担的未来预测仍然不确定.
- 这项研究量化和预测了2000年至2050年31个欧洲国家的家庭照顾负担.
研究的目的:
- 估计和预测欧洲非正式家庭照顾的未来负担.
- 为此目的开发和应用人口微型模拟模型.
- 分析五十年来家庭护理负担的趋势和因素.
主要方法:
- 创建了一个人口微型模拟模型,以模拟具有亲属网络和健康轨迹的虚拟人口.
- 定义了一种新的指标,即生活照顾年 (YLCs),它结合了接受者的残疾,网络动态和机构照顾能力.
- 数据输入包括联合国人口预测,欧盟统计局婚姻统计,全球疾病负担数据和SHARE调查微数据.
主要成果:
- 预计2000年至2050年期间,欧洲非正式护理的总体负担将增加49.7%,达到1190万年轻人.
- 肌肉骨疾病是导致护理负担的主要原因,在2050年占230万年轻人的负担.
- 虽然女性承担了不成比例的负担,但性别差距正在减少.
结论:
- 预计到2050年,欧洲非正式家庭照顾的负担将大幅增加,而机构照顾的缓解程度有限.
- 这些预测需要全面的战略来支持护理人员和护理受益人.
- 可持续的医疗保健系统需要为不断变化的非正式护理环境做出积极的规划.
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