在罗马后期期间的干旱和冲突
Charles Norman1, Lothar Schwinden2, Paul Krusic1
1Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN UK.
概括
在罗马帝国 (公元350年至公元476年) 中,严重的夏季干旱导致收获失败和粮食短缺. 这种气候变化导致社会不稳定和冲突,导致罗马大不列颠和西罗马帝国的台.
科学领域:
- 环境历史 环境历史
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 考古学的考古学
背景情况:
- 罗马英国 (公元410年) 和西罗马帝国 (公元476年) 的崩有复杂的,有争议的原因.
- 之前的研究还没有将气候数据与历史事件完全整合起来,以解释这些下降.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候变化,特别是夏季干旱在罗马社会不稳定和冲突中的作用.
- 建立一个机械模型,将干旱,资源短缺和农业社会中的社会崩联系起来.
主要方法:
- 利用基于树环的气候重建和历史文献来源.
- 分析了整个罗马帝国 (公元350年至公元476年) 的气候冲突联系,并对罗马帝国的英国进行了案例研究.
主要成果:
- 一连串严重的夏季干旱 (公元364年-366年) 与罗马英国的收获失败,粮食短缺和"野蛮阴谋"有关.
- 在罗马帝国多年的战斗和之前温暖干燥的夏季之间发现了明确的联系.
- 在干旱期间观察到异常的硬币藏和定居点人口减少.
结论:
- 长期的干旱是农业社会脆弱性的重要驱动因素.
- 气候变化,通过收获失败和粮食短缺,可能导致社会压力,不稳定和冲突,导致帝国的衰落.
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