印度的登革热动态:利用自动回归集成移动平均模型进行预测洞察
Sashikanta Tripathy1, Amit Kumar Mishra1, Manisha Ruikar1
1Department of Community and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India.
Journal of family medicine and primary care
|April 21, 2025
概括
印度的登革热病例和死亡人数呈现越来越大的趋势,预测显示会持续上升. 迫切需要采取公共卫生干预措施来应对这种日益严重的威胁.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 登革热病毒 (DENV) 感染是一个重大的全球健康问题,影响了世界上近一半的人口.
- 东南亚国家,特别是印度,面临着由于气候和环境因素导致登革热发病率增加的高风险.
- 全球每年的感染人数从1亿到4亿不等,这凸显了这种疾病的广泛影响.
研究的目的:
- 分析印度登革热病例和死亡病例的流行病学趋势.
- 预测未来几年的印度登革热发病率和死亡率.
主要方法:
- 使用1999年至2023年的登革热数据进行了时间序列分析.
- 自动回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 模型是使用Gretl软件进行预测而开发的.
- 评估了模型的静止性,并对2024-2026年登革热病例和死亡产生了预测.
主要成果:
- 在印度,在整个研究期间观察到登革热病例和死亡的上升趋势.
- 2024年至2026年的预测预计登革热病例和死亡率将持续增加.
- 预计2026年的数字包括309,836例登革热病例和533例死亡.
结论:
- 登革热负担不断升级,需要立即和有针对性的公共卫生干预措施.
- 政策制定者和卫生当局应该优先实施有效的预防策略,以控制印度登革热的增加.
更多相关视频
10:46A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
10.6K
08:36Measuring Dengue Virus RNA in the Culture Supernatant of Infected Cells by Real-time Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction
Published on: November 1, 2018
31.7K
相关概念视频
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
90
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
90
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
237
Epidemiological data primarily involves information on specific populations' occurrence, distribution, and determinants of health and diseases. This data is crucial for understanding disease patterns and impacts, aiding public health decision-making and disease prevention strategies. The analysis of epidemiological data employs various statistical methods to interpret health-related data effectively. Here are some commonly used methods:
237
Regression Analysis
5.5K
Regression analysis is a statistical tool that describes a mathematical relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.
In regression analysis, a regression equation is determined based on the line of best fit– a line that best fits the data points plotted in a graph. This line is also called the regression line. The algebraic equation for the regression line is called the regression equation. It is represented as:
In regression analysis, a regression equation is determined based on the line of best fit– a line that best fits the data points plotted in a graph. This line is also called the regression line. The algebraic equation for the regression line is called the regression equation. It is represented as:
5.5K
Residuals and Least-Squares Property
7.2K
The vertical distance between the actual value of y and the estimated value of y. In other words, it measures the vertical distance between the actual data point and the predicted point on the line
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...
7.2K
Multiple Regression
2.9K
Multiple regression assesses a linear relationship between one response or dependent variable and two or more independent variables. It has many practical applications.
Farmers can use multiple regression to determine the crop yield based on more than one factor, such as water availability, fertilizer, soil properties, etc. Here, the crop yield is the response or dependent variable as it depends on the other independent variables. The analysis requires the construction of a scatter plot...
Farmers can use multiple regression to determine the crop yield based on more than one factor, such as water availability, fertilizer, soil properties, etc. Here, the crop yield is the response or dependent variable as it depends on the other independent variables. The analysis requires the construction of a scatter plot...
2.9K
Prediction Intervals
2.2K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
2.2K
