在当前和未来的气候场景下,利用biomod2模型在中国建模Hippophae rhamnoides的潜在分布
Tingjiang Gan1, Zhipeng He2, Danping Xu2
1Engineering Research Center of Chuanxibei Rural Human Settlement (RHS) Construction, Mianyang Teachers' College, Mianyang, China.
Frontiers in plant science
|April 21, 2025
概括
Hippophae rhamnoides,或海,是在欧亚大陆的干旱地区发现的. 它在中国的合适息地预计将向西北转移,这将影响这种有价值的植物的保护工作.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 生物地理学是生物地理学.
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 河 (Hippophae rhamnoides) 是一个生态和经济上重要的植物物种.
- 它生长在干旱/半干旱地区,高海拔地区,骨架性土壤和高太阳流.
- 它的分布集中在中国的特定区域,这凸显了它对资源管理的重要性.
研究的目的:
- 在中国建模Hippophae rhamnoides目前和未来的地理分布.
- 确定影响其分布的关键环境因素.
- 为保护和可持续管理H. rhamnoides资源提供科学基础.
主要方法:
- 使用biomod2软件进行集成建模.
- 分析了312个配送点和23个环境因素.
- 根据SSP245情景,预计未来的分配变化.
主要成果:
- 年平均温度,温度季节性和最冷季度的平均温度是影响H. rhamnoides分布的关键因素.
- 目前,适合息地面积为212.89×104平方公里 (22.15%的中国陆地面积),集中在特定的北部和西部省份.
- 高,中,低适合性地区分别占适合性息地的23.15%,22.66%和54.20%.
结论:
- 预计未来适合H. rhamnoides的息地将向西北转移.
- 环境因素对植物的地理分布有很大的影响.
- 这些发现支持改善H. rhamnoides和类似有价值的植物物种的保护,管理,栽培和繁殖策略.
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