2013年德国感染B型肝炎和C型肝炎病毒的人数估计:使用工作簿方法的基线流行率估计
Katrin Kremer-Flach1,2,3, Ruth Zimmermann1, Matthias An der Heiden1
1Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
Frontiers in public health
|April 22, 2025
概括
在德国,2013年,估计有228,000名成年人患有乙型肝炎病毒 (HBV),214,000人患有乙型肝炎病毒 (HCV). 移民和注射毒品的人 (PWID) 占这些感染的很大一部分.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 乙型肝炎 (HBV) 和乙型肝炎 (HCV) 感染虽然在德国不常见,但不成比例地影响特定的亚群体.
- 准确的估计对于2030年消除目标至关重要.
- 主要受影响的群体包括移民,注射毒品的人 (PWID) 和与男性发生性关系的HIV阳性男性 (HIV+MSM).
研究的目的:
- 估计2013年德国感染HBV和HCV的成年人总数.
- 量化特定亚种群的流行率,包括移民,PWID和HIV+MSM.
- 为持续的监测和消除工作建立基准.
主要方法:
- 使用工作簿方法,结合亚种群大小和流行数据.
- 包括一般人口 (不包括弱势群体),分层移民人口,注射阿片类药物的人 (PWIO) 和HIV+MSM.
- 计算HBV和HCV感染人数与置信限值.
主要成果:
- 在德国 (2013年) 估计有228,000 (179,000-291,000) 个成年人感染HBV.
- 在德国 (2013年) 估计有214,000 (135,000-340,000) 个成年人患有HCV.
- 移民占HBV病例的58%和HCV病例的26%;PWIO占HCV病例的26%.
结论:
- 超过一半的HBV感染是在移民中;超过一半的HCV感染是在PWIO或移民中.
- 强调必须将子群体纳入国家卫生估计和干预措施.
- 这些估计为跟踪德国的HBV和HCV流行病学提供了至关重要的参考.
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