风险耐受性和传染病传播之间的复杂相互作用
Maximilian M Nguyen1, Ari S Freedman2, Matthew A Cheung3
1Lewis-Sigler Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
人口承受风险的异质性显著影响流行病的大小和动态. 增加寻求风险可以放大疫情的爆发,而干预和不愿冒风险的行为可以减轻传播,有时是意想不到的.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 行为科学 行为科学
背景情况:
- 个人的风险驱动行为影响并受到流行病传播的影响.
- 了解风险耐受性的人口异质性对于流行病动态至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个灵活的分隔模型,分析风险耐受性异质对流行病的影响.
- 探索个体行为和流行病学结果之间的复杂相互作用.
主要方法:
- 引入一个通用和灵活的隔间模型.
- 模拟和分析不同程度的风险承受力异质性下的流行病动态.
主要成果:
- 风险耐受性的异质性可以不可预测地增加或减少流行病的总体规模.
- 多个感染波可以从行为流行病学相互作用中出现,即使没有新的易受感染的个体.
- 增加的保护措施 (干预的有效性,不愿冒风险的人口比例,干预的持续时间) 减少了流行病的超标.
结论:
- 在超出关键防护值之后,流行病动态转向低压状态,消除超标并达到群体免疫力.
- 人口的风险厌恶并不总是单调地减少流行病的大小,揭示了复杂的反循环.
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