在一个变暖的世界里,在温暖极端和寒冷极端之间快速翻转.
Sijia Wu1, Ming Luo2, Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau3
1Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Nature communications
|April 22, 2025
概括
快速的温度波动,突然的气候变化,正在全球范围内增加. 这一趋势挑战了人类和生态系统的性,要求迫切理解和减缓战略,以应对不断升级的气候危险.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 由于适应时间短,快速的温度转变对人类和生态系统构成重大挑战.
- 这些极端气候事件的动态和全球模式仍然不太清楚.
研究的目的:
- 为了对1961年至2100年的快速温度转变进行全面的全球评估.
- 分析影响因素和未来预测温度转变的频率,强度和持续时间.
主要方法:
- 从1961年到2100年全球温度数据的分析.
- 在政府间气候变化小组 (IPCC) 定义的区域中评估翻转特征 (频率,强度,持续时间).
- 根据SSP5-8.5情景对未来趋势的预测.
主要成果:
- 自1961年以来,超过60%的全球地区经历了更频繁,更强烈,更快速的温度转变,预测表明大多数地区的扩张.
- 温暖到寒冷的翻转与更潮湿,多云的条件相关;冷到温暖的翻转显示了相反的模式.
- 未来的预测 (2071-2100,SSP5-8.5) 显示翻转频率增加 (6.73-8.03%),强度 (7.16-7.32%) 和过渡时间减少 (2.47-3.24%).
结论:
- 全球人口暴露于快速温度转变的影响将增加一倍以上,不成比例地影响低收入国家.
- 随着全球变暖的不断加快,温度波动的危险日益加剧,迫切需要进行研究和减缓努力.
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