绿色增长在历史的镜子里
Juan Infante-Amate1, Emiliano Travieso2, Eduardo Aguilera3
1Department of Economic Theory and History, Universidad de Granada, Granada, Spain. jinfama@ugr.es.
Nature communications
|April 22, 2025
概括
绿色增长,将经济增长与排放脱,对于全球气候目标来说是不够的. 历史上排放量减少主要发生在经济衰退期间,而不是绿色增长时期.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化经济学 气候变化经济学
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 绿色增长,定义为经济增长与温室气体排放的绝对脱,是全球可持续发展的关键政策重点.
- 虽然在高收入国家观察到绿色增长,但其满足全球气候减缓目标的充分性仍然不确定.
研究的目的:
- 分析经济产出和人为温室气体排放的长期历史数据.
- 制定一个框架,以确定全球,区域和国家经济增长与排放之间的脱模式.
- 评估绿色增长在实现减排方面的历史有效性.
主要方法:
- 检查从1820年到2022年的长期历史数据.
- 开发一个框架来分析不同地理尺度上的脱模式.
- 经济衰退与绿色增长对二氧化碳减少的贡献的量化.
主要成果:
- 在1820年至2022年间,化石燃料产生的累计二氧化碳减少约60%发生在经济衰退期间,而不是绿色增长时期.
- 五次重大全球危机约占这些历史二氧化碳减少的40%.
- 虽然在过去50年中,国家绿色增长的情况有所增加,但它们通常不会随着时间的推移而持续.
结论:
- 历史证据表明,通常定义的绿色增长不足以推动实现全球气候目标所需的减排.
- 从历史上看,显著的排放减少是由经济衰退推动的,而不是由有意识的绿色增长政策推动的.
- 持续的经济增长时期与气候目标所需的大幅减排相结合,在历史上很少见,并且在很大程度上是事.
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