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在政策不确定性下协调电力部门的气候转型
Fikri Kucuksayacigil1, Zhenhua Zhang2, Michael R Davidson3,4
1School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Dr., San Diego, 92093, CA, USA.
Nature communications
|April 22, 2025
概括
协调不同地区的气候政策可以节省最小的成本,但也可以增强传输网络等关键基础设施. 政策的有效性取决于考虑政治现实和协调障碍.
科学领域:
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 系统动力学系统动力学
背景情况:
- 有效的气候政策需要跨政治司法管辖区的协调,有不同的机构结构和利益集团.
- 现实的协调障碍和政策异质性显著影响最佳的低碳电力路径.
研究的目的:
- 模拟协调障碍和政策异质性对美国西部最佳低碳电力路径的影响.
- 分析不同协调机制对电力系统成本和基础设施发展的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了一个容量扩展模型,其中包含了运营和协调机制的细节.
- 完全协调与基线电力系统的估计总成本.
- 分析了区域协调对基础设施投资的影响,包括输电,储能和可再生能源.
主要成果:
- 与基线水平相比,完全协调的电力系统的总成本降低幅度很小 (只有几个百分比).
- 由于协调,国家一级的成本差异差异很大,高达一个数量级.
- 在补充协调政策下观察到增强的传输网络,促进贸易.
- 储能和可再生能源等取决于位置的投资对市场协调程度更为敏感.
- 坚定的低碳能力部署主要是由政策严格性和成本/可用性假设驱动的,区域协调的影响有限.
结论:
- 在评估最佳途径时,气候和能源模型必须纳入市场和政策协调层面的政治可行性.
- 虽然充分协调提供了有限的总成本效益,但对于开发贸易支持基础设施至关重要.
- 政策严格性和经济因素比区域协调程度更为关键,是企业低碳能力的关键驱动因素.
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