用图形学习量化运输系统中的极端故障场景
Mingxue Guo1, Tingting Zhao1, Jianxi Gao2
1School of Systems Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China.
Patterns (New York, N.Y.)
|April 23, 2025
概括
我们开发了一种图形学习方法 (GAE-IS),以有效估计复杂工程系统中的极端事件概率. 这种方法显著降低了计算成本,并提高了大规模网络可靠性评估的准确性.
科学领域:
- 工程 工程师 工程师 工程师
- 计算机科学 计算机科学
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
背景情况:
- 在复杂的工程系统中评估极端事件对于可靠性和弹性至关重要.
- 由于事件稀有性和系统复杂性,估计故障概率在计算上是昂贵的.
- 传统的采样方法在大型系统中面临着高成本的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种新的图形学习方法,用于对极端事件进行高效的统计分析.
- 为了减少与在复杂网络中估计罕见事件概率相关的计算负担.
- 提高可靠性和弹性评估的准确性和效率.
主要方法:
- 引入了一个图形学习方法:基于图形自编码器 (GAE-IS) 的重要性抽样.
- 集成了一个修改的图形自编码器 (关键性评估器) 与基于交叉的重要性采样.
- 在分析工作流程中,分离了组件关键性与漏洞.
主要成果:
- GAE-IS在不同类型的网络中展示了显著的可转移性.
- 实现了对重要抽样 (一到两个数量级) 的计算成本的显著降低.
- 为大规模网络的极端故障提供了更准确的概率估计.
结论:
- GAE-IS为极端事件概率估计提供了一种计算效率高,准确的方法.
- 这种方法对于大型工程系统,特别是道路网络非常有效.
- 这种方法提升了系统设计,可靠性和弹性评估.
相关概念视频
Survival Tree
39
Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
39
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
28
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
28
Friction: Problem Solving
185
Friction is an essential force that influences the motion of objects in daily life. Depending on the situation, it can be either beneficial or problematic. Consider a bus with a mass of three megagrams and its center of mass at a specific point, moving along a banked road at a constant speed. The coefficient of static friction between the tires and the road is 0.5. Find the maximum angle of the banked road at which the bus would not slip or tip.
Initially, a visual representation of the...
Initially, a visual representation of the...
185
Design Example: Alignment of a Road Line Using GIS
21
The alignment of a road line using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is a critical process in civil engineering, combining advanced technology with practical decision-making. This methodology begins with the collection of geospatial data, including information on land cover, geomorphology, drainage patterns, slope, and contour details. Such data is typically acquired through satellite imagery and GIS tools, offering a comprehensive understanding of the terrain.Once the data is gathered, it...
21
Multi-input and Multi-variable systems
86
Cruise control systems in cars are designed as multi-input systems to maintain a driver's desired speed while compensating for external disturbances such as changes in terrain. The block diagram for a cruise control system typically includes two main inputs: the desired speed set by the driver and any external disturbances, such as the incline of the road. By adjusting the engine throttle, the system maintains the vehicle's speed as close to the desired value as possible.
In the absence...
In the absence...
86
Manipulation and Analysis
13
GIS manipulation and analysis functions are vital for decision-making and planning. These activities range from data retrieval tasks, such as selecting information based on specific criteria, to advanced analytical techniques that address complex spatial problems.One critical GIS analysis method is overlaying, which combines multiple data layers to examine impacts. For example, overlaying a river-dammed lake boundary with road networks can identify affected infrastructure. Another common...
13


