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对大规模聚会活动中人群冲的风险因素的研究,考虑到组织模式
Ying Lu1,2, Jingwen Wang1, Weihui Dai3
1School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
Frontiers in public health
|April 23, 2025
概括
组织模式显著影响大规模聚会的安全风险. 自发事件带来了最高的风险,需要定制的安全管理策略来防止人类冲刺和过度拥挤.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 大众聚会带有固有的安全风险,特别是过度拥挤,受到各种组织模式的影响.
- 对这些模式的研究不足导致认知偏见和对大规模聚会安全的不有效的预防措施.
研究的目的:
- 调查在大规模集会期间导致人群 stampedes 的风险因素.
- 分析不同组织模式对这些风险的影响,并告知安全管理.
主要方法:
- 结合接地理论和代自组织集群算法 (ISODATA).
- 编码了209个过度拥挤的情况,以创建一个风险因素数据集.
- 提出了一个"组织系数"来量化不同集群中的风险水平.
主要成果:
- 确定了三个组织模式:有组织的 (系数=1.9174),应用的 (系数=2.9831),和自发的 (系数=4.4327).
- 在各种模式的聚合原因,布局和风险水平中发现了显著的差异.
- 在触发行为,意识和管理策略方面注意到了相似之处.
结论:
- 组织模式对大规模聚会的安全性和 stampede 风险产生重大影响.
- 自发性聚会构成最高风险,需要采取具体的安全干预措施.
- 提供了加强大众集会风险预防和安全管理的理论基础.
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